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Prediction for CME (2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-30T16:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23070/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SW in STEREO Ahead along the SW streamer during a SOHO data gap. Likely associated with ejecta following an M1.4-class flare from AR13176. A distinct EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2022-12-30T15:28Z to the S/SW of the eruption and continues to spread with some deflection to the south, likely due to a nearby coronal hole. There is also some dimming seen to the SW of the eruption that may have been caused by an earlier eruption starting around 2022-12-30T11:30Z which could be associated with a potential separate CME feature (bulk) in the white-light imagery just ahead of the wider measurable portion of this CME. Due to some uncertainty caused by the lack of SOHO imagery, the two CMEs are treated together here as one. The arrival is seen on 2023-01-03 when B_total initially increased from 3nT to 10nT and was accompanied by an increase in density and speed at the arrival of the sheath.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-03T16:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-02T00:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2022-12-30T20:14:15Z
## Message ID: 20221230-AL-001
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A. 

Start time of the event: 2022-12-30T16:53Z.

Estimated speed: ~811 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -3/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, STEREO B, and Mars (minor impact).  The leading edge of the CME will reach Solar Orbiter at 2023-01-02T12:53Z, STEREO A at 2023-01-02T09:05Z, STEREO B at 2023-01-01T22:34Z, and Mars at 2023-01-04T06:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2023-01-02T00:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20221230_214600_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2022-12-30T16:53:00-CME-001) is associated with M1.4 flare from AR13176 (N19E08) with ID 2022-12-30T15:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2022-12-30T15:28Z. This analysis is preliminary and additional updates may be made. 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Lead Time: 92.20 hour(s)
Difference: 40.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2022-12-30T20:14Z

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